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Today’s Morning Sixpack has a little bit of everything: an election that could flip Washington, a forecast that says it probably will, a war that is supposedly over but keeps making headlines, oil profits that defy a shrinking economy, a sudden shift on Israel aid, and one heartbreaking story out of Florida. Let’s get into it.
Americans are voting in a midterm election that could dramatically reshape the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term.
Democrats need to flip just three House seats and four Senate seats, while Republicans battle voter anger over rising prices, the war in Iran, and the economy. Inflation is at 3.7%, an October AP-NORC poll put Trump’s approval at 35%, and yet Trump told Fox News that “inflation is solved.” The Senate map has widened into places like Texas, Kansas, and Iowa, and the Justice Department has sent about 1,000 election monitors across all 50 states, raising intimidation concerns from voting rights advocates. A Democratic House would gain subpoena power, and a Democratic Senate would complicate Trump’s judicial and cabinet nominations.
Source: Associated Press
A Harvard-affiliated forecasting project says Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to retake the House and have a strong shot at the Senate.
ElectIt, tied to political scientist Gary King, gives Democrats a 96% chance of winning the House and a 71% chance of controlling both chambers, with a central projection of 242 House seats. It puts the odds of Republicans keeping both chambers at about 2%, and a split result, with Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate, at 26%. The researchers stress these are probabilities, not guarantees. They compare a Republican House win to rolling a particular number on a 20-sided die: unlikely, but absolutely possible.
Source: Harvard University — ElectIt
The U.S. military struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, even as Trump told reporters the war was over and that America hadn’t fought in months.
According to U.S. officials speaking to The Wall Street Journal, the strikes were part of a series of limited, unannounced operations. American and Iranian forces also traded fire near the Strait of Hormuz, including an Iranian surface-to-air missile fired at a U.S. fighter jet. Officials describe the actions as defensive, but CENTCOM is moving in more missile defenses and munitions, and Gulf nations have reportedly been told to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign after the election. Iran says the ball is in Washington’s court and has warned of retaliation if the conflict reignites.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Saudi Aramco reported a 35% jump in third-quarter profit even as the Saudi economy shrinks under the weight of the Iran war.
Net income hit $36.25 billion, and the company declared a $21.9 billion dividend, a lifeline for the Saudi government. Meanwhile, the kingdom’s GDP fell 3.8% from a year earlier, oil-related activity plunged 20.4%, and Houthi militants have stepped up attacks on Saudi airports and infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, Aramco is leaning on its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, which was shut for nearly two weeks in September after drone strikes. The takeaway is a war economy where corporate winners and national losers sit side by side.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
President Trump announced that the U.S. will stop providing roughly $4 billion in annual aid to Israel by the end of 2026, citing an agreement with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
He said Israel no longer needs the money, and he also pointed to Democrats, singling out Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who have turned the aid into a campaign issue. Big questions remain, since the current agreement provides $3.8 billion a year through 2028 and Congress authorized it in 2020. Polling shows a major shift in public opinion: a June Quinnipiac poll found 48% of voters say the U.S. gives Israel too much support, up from 16% in 2017. For now, this is a political statement rather than a completed policy change.
Source: Reuters
Federal investigators are examining whether severe weather brought down a private Learjet that crashed into a South Florida neighborhood on Sunday, killing all nine people aboard.
The jet left Austin bound for the Bahamas and met a rapidly intensifying thunderstorm over Palm Beach County, with a pilot reporting rain, ice, and turbulence before a mayday call. The victims included Austin entrepreneur Adam Robinson, his wife Helen Sharp, their two young children, two family friends, the children’s nanny, and 20-year-old co-pilot Nathalia Filgueiras. About 600 residents of a nearby mobile home park were evacuated, and one man driving nearby was injured. The NTSB is urging caution about conclusions while it studies the wreckage, weather, and flight data.
Source: The Washington Post
That’s your Morning Sixpack: a country casting its vote, a war nobody will call a war, and a sobering reminder to hug your people a little tighter today.
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