The Morning Sixpack - July 15, 2025

Trump escalates trade wars, expands immigrant detention, cuts Education Dept staff, floods hit the Northeast, and the Pentagon backs Musk’s AI

Inflation Rises After Trump Tariffs Kick In

June’s inflation rate climbed to 2.7% year-over-year, faster than May’s 2.4%, signaling that businesses are beginning to pass on the costs from tariffs directly to consumers.

This uptick is exactly what economists expected, but it still puts pressure on the economy and your budget.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy volatility, hit 2.9%, also matching forecasts. Notably, prices for tariff-sensitive goods like furniture, clothing, toys, and electronics all saw noticeable increases in June, while new car prices actually dipped a bit. These rising costs come as the Trump administration ratchets up tariff threats on major trade partners, including a looming 30% levy on goods from Mexico and the EU starting August 1.

Experts agree tariffs drive prices higher and slow economic growth, but the timing and scale of those effects are still debated. Companies have been stockpiling inventory to delay passing along costs, but that buffer is thinning. As Goldman Sachs pointed out, U.S. consumers will bear the brunt—about 70%—of these tariff expenses. Retailers like Walmart and brands like Ralph Lauren have already warned price hikes are on the way.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee captured the confusion perfectly: “The more we keep adding things to the mix that make it hard to figure out—‘Are prices going to be rising or not?’—the more it’s just throwing more dirt back in the air.”

This uncertainty is why the Fed remains cautious about cutting interest rates despite political pressure. In fact, it’s more than an even bet that the Fed raises rates before it cuts them.

Source: WSJ (gift article)

Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric on Russia

President Trump warned that any country trading with Moscow risks facing secondary tariffs unless Russia agrees to a peace deal in Ukraine.

This move not only escalates tensions with Russia but risks dragging the U.S. into deeper conflict with China—one of Russia’s biggest trading partners—just as the two nations seemed to be thawing their relationship. Beijing’s response was swift and clear, calling any such sanctions “coercion.”

Nope. It’s a shakedown.

Meanwhile, U.S. allies are not getting a free pass. Trump’s 30% tariff threat against European Union goods pushed Brussels to draft retaliatory tariffs on $72 billion worth of American exports. The EU is scrambling to coordinate responses and deepen trade ties with other global partners to counteract Washington’s aggressive stance.

This aggressive trade posture shows Trump’s willingness to mix economic pressure with geopolitical muscle, but it also risks alienating key partners and disrupting global markets. The ripple effects could be felt far beyond Washington, complicating diplomacy and global supply chains.

What Trump is doing is putting up a wall around the US, economically speaking. He is isolating us from everybody else and, in the long run, it will hurt us very badly.

Source: Semafor

Millions of Undocumented Immigrants Face Life in Prison

A new directive from ICE’s acting director mandates that immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally must be detained throughout their removal proceedings—a process that can drag on for months or even years.

That is, if they even get due process, which is guaranteed by the Constitution for EVERYBODY, whether they’re citizens or not. Read the damned document. It’s pretty clear.

This policy shift slams the door on bond hearings for millions, including those who have lived here for decades and have strong community ties.

Previously, many immigrants could request bond hearings before immigration judges to potentially secure release while fighting their cases. But this memo leans on a legal interpretation meant for recent border crossers, expanding it to cover longtime residents.

Exceptions for release now lie solely in the hands of ICE officers, not judges.

Critics argue this move is a blatant overreach that strips immigrants of due process, making it near impossible for many to prepare an adequate defense or maintain their lives here. As Greg Chen from the American Immigration Lawyers Association puts it, this policy is “requiring the detention of far more people without any real review of their individual circumstances.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is doubling down on immigration enforcement with Congress approving billions to expand detention capacity and hire thousands of officers, aiming to deport millions of immigrants in the coming years. The human and legal fallout is just beginning to unfold.

This, and the stupid Trump tariffs, will be our undoing.

Source: WaPo (gift article)

Northeast Floods Overwhelm

Heavy flash flooding struck New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania Monday night, forcing officials to declare states of emergency and urging residents to stay off the roads.

Vehicles were stranded, subway stations flooded, and critical highways temporarily shut down as relentless downpours overwhelmed infrastructure.

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy called for caution as floodwaters stalled buses and trains, while in New York City, several subway lines were suspended or delayed, with passengers trapped on trains as water seeped onto platforms. Scenes of submerged cars and flooded streets dominated social media, painting a clear picture of the chaos.

In Pennsylvania’s Mount Joy, over seven inches of rain fell in just hours, flooding homes with water depths reaching five feet and prompting 16 emergency water rescues. Officials quickly moved to declare a disaster emergency to mobilize resources and speed recovery.

Though rainfall eased by Monday evening and waters began to recede in some areas, authorities continue to warn residents to avoid unnecessary travel and heed evacuation orders, reminding everyone that flash floods can be deadly and unpredictable. See Camp Mystic.

As much as infrastructure struggles to keep pace with nature’s fury, the increasing frequency of these storms is a wake-up call that emergency preparedness can’t be an afterthought.

Climate change is real. We’re literally turning our heads on this existential, self-made and 100 percent foreseeable catastrophe.

Source: NPR

The Pentagon Awarded $200 Billion to Musk’s xAI Company

The Department of Defense awarded $200 million contracts to four AI heavyweights—Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, and Musk’s xAI—aiming to turbocharge its AI capabilities for national security.

The catch? xAI’s Grok chatbot recently sparked outrage by posting pro-Hitler and anti-Semitic content on X, Musk’s social platform, which the company quickly deleted.

Pentagon’s Chief Digital and AI Officer Doug Matty insists this is about transforming warfighting and intelligence with cutting-edge tech.

“The adoption of AI is transforming the Department's ability to support our warfighters and maintain strategic advantage over our adversaries,” he said.

But given Grok’s recent controversy, that transformation might come with some serious growing pains.

xAI framed the deal as part of its “Grok for Movement” initiative, pitching AI solutions to speed up government services and solve tough science and tech problems.

Meanwhile, political voices like Senator Elizabeth Warren aren’t buying the optimism, tweeting, “What could possibly go wrong when integrating AI into our national security?”

With Musk’s messy ties to Trump—who funneled nearly $300 million to his campaign—and ongoing AI controversies, this Pentagon partnership is less a clean tech win and more a reminder that politics, money, and technology are still dangerously entangled.

Hey man, I’ve watched the Terminator series. Those machines are going to be a major threat to humanity. Then, and only then, will we as a species come together to defeat a unitary opponent. Then, of course, we’ll go back to our old ways, fighting each other, assuming we win.

Source: UPI

SCOTUS Rules Trump Can Dismantle Department of Education

In a sharply divided ruling, the Court overturned a lower-court block on layoffs that would cut over 1,300 workers from the Education Department, clearing the way for the biggest downsizing in the agency’s history.

Justice Sotomayor’s blistering dissent called it an “indefensible” power grab, warning this move threatens the very balance of powers in our government.

This decision marks yet another win for Trump’s relentless campaign to shrink federal agencies, including firing thousands of federal workers and slashing funding to diversity and inclusion programs.

The Education Department cuts will gut offices like Civil Rights and Federal Student Aid, both critical to protecting vulnerable students and overseeing billions in student loans.

Despite claims that the cuts will boost efficiency and accountability, critics argue the department can’t fulfill its legal duties with half the staff, risking chaos for schools, districts, and millions of families. One federal judge even called the cuts likely to “cripple the Department,” especially for those relying on it most.

Employees on the chopping block vow to fight back, with many already placed on administrative leave but still paid, highlighting the chaos behind the scenes.

As one staffer said, “The fight is not over.”

The real damage to America’s education system has been ongoing since at least the Reagan years and it’s only accelerated with Trump’s takeover of American politics.

Source: WaPo