The Morning Sixpack - March 12, 2025
Tariffs: On again, off again. If there's one thing that spooks a market, it's uncertainty.
Listen to the Podcast
Trump Escalates Trade War with Canada, Doubling Tariffs on Metal Imports
In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, President Donald Trump has announced that tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports will double to 50%.
The decision, set to take effect Wednesday morning, comes in retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on electricity exports to northern U.S. states. Trump framed the move as a necessary countermeasure, declaring a "national emergency on electricity" in those states and warning of further economic consequences if Canada does not back down.
"If tariffs including those on agricultural products are not dropped, I will hike taxes on the car industry, which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada," Trump stated.
The threat raises the stakes for Canada’s vital auto sector, which heavily relies on exports to the U.S. The latest tariff hike signals a deepening rift between the two nations, with potentially far-reaching economic consequences for industries on both sides of the border.
As tensions mount, industry leaders and economists are warning of the broader implications of an escalating trade war. The Canadian government has not yet issued a formal response, but officials are expected to weigh retaliatory measures. The move adds yet another layer of uncertainty to North American trade relations, with businesses bracing for potential disruptions.
Source: BBC
But then…Trump folded like a wet paper bag.
Trump Walks Back on 50% Tariffs, Keeping Steel and Aluminum Duties at 25%
After a day of economic brinkmanship, the White House announced it would roll back plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, keeping them at 25% instead of the initially proposed 50%.
The move follows Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to temporarily suspend his province’s planned 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S.
Ford’s reversal came after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to escalate the trade war by not only hiking metal tariffs but also imposing additional taxes on the Canadian auto industry.
"In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win," newly elected Liberal Party leader Mark Carney declared in response to the U.S. tariff threats.
DIG!
His remarks reflect the growing nationalist sentiment in Canada, where Trump's economic policies have reshaped the political landscape. Ford, meanwhile, has accepted an invitation from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to negotiate in Washington, suggesting that further tariff adjustments may be on the table.
Despite the tariff rollback, tensions between the U.S. and Canada remain high. The White House has signaled that it still considers Canada more of a “competitor” than an ally, while Canadian officials warn that ongoing trade instability could damage industries on both sides of the border.
With the new 25% tariffs set to take effect at midnight, business leaders on both sides are bracing for potential long-term fallout.
Source: BBC
All these import tax gyrations are KILLING the stock markets. Just watch. It’s gonna get a lot worse.
Dow Down Nine Percent from Peak; What’s Next?
NOTE: In December, the Dow was over 45,000, down nearly 9 percent. A soft definition of a market “correction” is 10 percent. Twenty percent is considered a “bear market.” Halfway there, with more tariff bullshit to follow!
Jim Cramer Slams Trump: ‘They’re Crushing Us!’ as Markets Plunge
CNBC’s Jim Cramer erupted on air, accusing President Donald Trump of “manufacturing” a recession as the stock market nosedived. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 1,000 points Monday, closing at -890, amid fears stoked by Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession over the weekend.
Cramer, visibly frustrated on Squawk on the Street, warned that Trump’s erratic trade policies were “playing with fire,” adding, “Maybe it’s deliberate!”
He criticized Trump’s approach, arguing that his aggressive stance against trade partners was doing more harm than good.
“If we have a recession, banks are the worst stocks. I don’t think we’ll have a recession… Like I said, it’s manufactured. It’s manufactured,” Cramer said.
Damn, that guy is goofy. We will have a recession. Hell, we’re in one right now. Ask any fired former federal employee. As the old saying goes: When your neighbor gets laid off, it’s a recession. When YOU get laid off, it’s a depression.
He expressed disbelief that foreign stock markets were outperforming the U.S., exclaiming, “Are we really going to let the Italian stock market beat us? Spain?!? Spain?!? I mean, are you kidding me?!?”
Cramer likened Trump’s tariff strategy to the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, widely blamed for deepening the Great Depression, and warned that history was repeating itself.
As economic anxiety deepens, investors are bracing for more volatility, with global markets surging while Wall Street stumbles.
Cramer implored Trump to change course, arguing that his confrontational rhetoric was unnerving markets rather than strengthening them. With escalating trade tensions and investor panic setting in, the big question remains: Is this just a rough patch, or is the U.S. economy heading toward a full-blown crisis?
The answer: Yes!
Source: Mediaite
Enough about tariffs, trade wars, and tumbling stock markets…
Russian Captain Arrested After Fiery North Sea Collision—Because What Could Go Wrong?
A Russian captain at the helm of a cargo ship that plowed into a U.S.-flagged tanker carrying jet fuel for the U.S. military has been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter.
The Solong, a Portuguese-flagged vessel, slammed into the anchored Stena Immaculate on Monday, causing massive explosions, sending one crew member into the abyss, and leaking fuel into the North Sea—because nothing says eco-friendly maritime transport like a high-octane fireball. British authorities wasted no time in detaining the 59-year-old captain, whose ship reportedly failed a steering-related safety check just last year.
The Solong, which sounds suspiciously like a prophetic farewell message, was owned by Hamburg-based Ernst Russ, who confirmed that their captain was Russian and their crew a mix of Russian and Filipino nationals. If this whole thing sounds eerily familiar, it might be because history has a nasty habit of repeating itself. Just swap out a German ship pretending to be a Polish attack in 1939 for a Russian captain pretending his ship knew how to steer, and here we are—one flaming tanker away from a geopolitical firestorm.
While officials investigate the cause of the crash, the world is left wondering: Was this sheer incompetence, or just another day of reckless maritime roulette? Either way, Britain and the U.S. are unlikely to let this one go without a thorough probe—and possibly a few pointed diplomatic side-eyes.
Source: MDGN
House GOP Passes Spending Bill—Senate Showdown Incoming
In a move that surprises absolutely no one, House Republicans muscled through a spending bill to keep the government funded—while also slashing $13 billion from non-defense programs and throwing an extra $6 billion at the military.
The bill, which extends government funding through September 30 at 2024 spending levels, now heads to the Senate, where it’s expected to spark an all-out brawl. Democrats have already made it clear they’re not fans, particularly since it also forces Washington, D.C., to carve a cool $1 billion out of its budget.
With a government shutdown looming this weekend, the White House gave the GOP a last-minute push, uniting Republicans just enough to get the bill over the finish line in the House.
But the Senate, where Republicans actually need Democratic support, is a whole different battleground.
Will Democrats roll over? Will Republicans hold the line? Or will we all be watching yet another Shutdown: The Sequel unfold in real time? Stay tuned.
The bill’s fate now rests in the hands of a Senate that has about as much bipartisanship as a Thanksgiving dinner debate about politics.
One thing’s for sure—whether it passes or crashes, there’s going to be plenty of political theater to go around.
Source: WSJ