The Morning Sixpack - November 5, 2024
It's Election Day (and should be a holiday) and you know what that means: Sales of TUMS is WAY UP!!!
1. Trump is a convicted felon. Here’s why he can still vote today
While Florida generally restricts voting rights for residents with felony convictions, former President Donald Trump will still be eligible to vote in Palm Beach due to a New York law allowing individuals with out-of-state felony convictions to vote if they are not incarcerated.
Earlier this year, Trump was convicted in Manhattan on 34 counts related to falsifying business records involving hush money payments during the 2016 election. Despite this felony conviction, Trump can vote in Florida because the state defers to New York’s law, which grants voting rights to felons not currently serving time. In contrast, Florida residents with felony convictions face stricter requirements; although a 2018 ballot initiative aimed to restore voting rights to those who had completed their sentences, state lawmakers imposed an additional hurdle by mandating payment of all related fines and fees.
This requirement has created significant challenges for many Floridians with felony convictions, as there is no centralized system to track outstanding payments, making it difficult for individuals to regain their voting rights. While Trump’s voting rights are preserved under New York’s more lenient approach, Florida's system remains complex and prohibitive for those seeking to participate in elections.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/can-trump-vote-2024-election/index.html
2. Elon Musk could be the biggest winner of a second Trump term
Elon Musk's relationship with Donald Trump could be significantly advantageous for Musk if Trump secures a second term. Musk's involvement with White House activities has grown, with a Tesla seen prominently on the White House lawn - a symbol of his rising influence. This rise is likely linked with Musk's ambitious space plans, given Trump's inclination towards ambitious space endeavors. However, some have questioned the implications of Musk's growing power and influence on global political and economic structures, while others have raised concerns about national security.
In a more detailed focus, Musk's growing prominence in the White House indicates a positive relationship with current president Donald Trump. With Trump's known interest in space exploration, it isn't surprising that he's supporting Musk's SpaceX moon mission, banking on its potential to create jobs in swing states - a move which could boost Trump's re-election prospects. Musk's SpaceX program aligns well with Trump's Space Force initiative, suggesting a mutual interest that could further strengthen their rapport.
However, this alliance has stirred concerns among observers. For one, the dynamic relationship raises questions about the intersection of wealth, power, and democracy. With Musk being the world's richest man and having a significant influence on the world's most powerful nation, it prompts a conversation about the implications for global political and economic stability. Secondly, there are fears about national security issues with Musk's substantial sway over Trump. Critics suggest this could potentially lead to national security vulnerabilities and shifts in global diplomatic alliances.
Read more about Musk’s terrible “economic agenda” here, here, and here. Yes, liddle leon wants to “tank the economy.” You can bet that will be to his benefit.
In fact, let’s deport Elon Musk. After all, he came to the US under false pretenses and was here illegally. And let’s also sever all the government contracts and shoot his satellites out of the sky.
How’s it feel now, leon?
3. Election 2024 Live Updates: Trump Still Leads Betting Sites—But Not Poll-Driven Predictions (Live Updates)
According to various predictive models and betting sites, the 2024 US Presidential Election seems to be a close race between presumptive candidates, Trump and Harris. As per Forbes, betting sites currently favor Trump, but poll-driven predictions do not align with this data. Conversely, Axios reports that prediction markets swung heavily against Trump as the race tightens, with Fortune confirming a sudden shift away from Trump as the final campaign stretch begins. Meanwhile, an innovative prediction method cited by the New York Post gives Trump a 54% chance of winning, challenging traditional polling data.
Forbes points to a clear contradiction between the outcomes predicted by betting sites and those indicated by poll-driven predictions, highlighting an element of unpredictability in the electoral race. A key takeaway is the volatility of predictions at this stage of the polls. Betting is a more risk-prone enterprise and can often be driven by different factors than scientific polls. The differing perspectives illustrate how the diverse factors influencing these domains may yield contrasting outcomes.
Axios and Fortune's reports suggest a negative swing against Trump on the prediction markets. Such platforms typically comprise of informed stakeholders who speculate based on comprehensive analysis of potential outcomes, lending credibility to their predictions. However, it's crucial to consider participants' implicit biases that can impact market trends. Additionally, an innovative prediction method cited by the New York Post gives Trump a favorable chance of winning, suggesting that novel models may provide different insights than traditional polls.
In summary, with varying predictions from different sources and methods, the 2024 US Presidential Election appears highly contested and somewhat unpredictable. The contrasting trend between betting sites, prediction markets, and poll-driven predictions adds an interesting dimension to the electoral forecasting landscape. This highlights the importance of considering multiple factors and perspectives in predicting election outcomes. Such discrepancies can influence campaign strategies and voter sentiments, making the monitoring of these trends crucial.
Let’s not forget that the biggest US presidential betting site is run by none other than Peter Thiel, founding member of the PayPal mafia (along with Elon Musk), and biggest financial supporter of Trump’s VP pick, JD Vance.
4. Here’s When the Polls Open to Vote Across the U.S. (all times Eastern)
6 a.m.
Connecticut
Indiana (Polling places in the Central time zone open an hour later.)
Kentucky (Polling places in the Central time zone open an hour later.)
Maine (Municipalities with fewer than 500 residents can open later.)
New Hampshire (It varies by municipality, but polls have to be open by 11 a.m.)
New Jersey
New York
Virginia
Vermont (Polling places can open as early as 5 a.m., but times vary by municipality.)
6:30 a.m.
West Virginia
North Carolina
Ohio
7 a.m.
Delaware
Washington, D.C.
Florida (Parts of the Panhandle located in the Central time zone open an hour later.)
Georgia
Illinois
Kansas (Polling places located in the Mountain time zone may open an hour later.)
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan (except for parts of the state in the Central time zone, where polls open an hour later)
Missouri
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island (except for the North Shoreham municipality, where polling stations open at 9 a.m.)
South Carolina
8 a.m.
Alabama (Parts of the state located in the Eastern time zone may open an hour earlier.)
Arizona
Tennessee (Some municipalities, including those in the Central time zone, may open later.)
Iowa
Minnesota (Towns with fewer than 500 people may approve later opening times.)
Mississippi
North Dakota (Polls can open as late as 11 a.m.)
Oklahoma
South Dakota (Polling places in the Mountain time zone open an hour later.)
Texas (Polling places in the Mountain time zone open an hour later.)
Wisconsin
8:30 a.m.
Arkansas
9 a.m.
Colorado
Idaho (Some polling places, including those in the Pacific time zone, open later.)
Montana (Some smaller municipalities can open later.)
Nebraska
New Mexico
Oregon (Polling places in the Pacific time zone open an hour later.)
Utah
Wyoming
10 a.m.
Washington (Times vary by county.)
California
Nevada
11 a.m.
Alaska (Some polling places open at noon.)
Noon
Hawaii
Source: http://nytimes.com/2024/11/05/us/politics/voting-polls-open-times.html
5. Tropical Storm Rafael could become hurricane
Tropical Storm Rafael is advancing toward the Cayman Islands and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before impacting Cuba. The storm is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Florida and parts of the southeastern United States later this week.
As of Tuesday morning, Rafael was located approximately 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, moving northwest at 13 mph. The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasts that Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Tuesday, approach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night, and make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and several Cuban provinces, while Jamaica remains under a tropical storm warning.
In preparation for Rafael's arrival, authorities in the Cayman Islands have closed schools and government offices, urging residents to secure their properties. Jamaica has also implemented precautionary measures, including school closures and government office shutdowns. Cuban officials have ordered the evacuation of approximately 37,000 people in the province of Guantánamo due to adverse weather conditions.
The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the western Caribbean, with potential totals of 3 to 6 inches and localized amounts up to 10 inches in Jamaica and parts of Cuba, leading to possible flooding and mudslides. As Rafael progresses, heavy rainfall is anticipated to spread into Florida and the southeastern U.S. during the middle to late part of the week.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/us/tropical-storm-rafael-forecast-hurricane-hnk/index.html
6. Chiefs triumph in OT thriller, overcome Mahomes injury
The Kansas City Chiefs maintained their unbeaten record with a 30-24 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the team with 291 passing yards and three touchdowns, despite briefly leaving the game due to an ankle injury. Tight end Travis Kelce contributed significantly with 14 receptions for 100 yards, while newly acquired wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins added eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Kareem Hunt secured the win with a 2-yard touchdown run in overtime.
The Buccaneers, led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, managed to tie the game at 24-24 with 27 seconds remaining in regulation. Mayfield completed 20 of 30 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Despite their efforts, the Buccaneers fell short in overtime as the Chiefs won the coin toss and executed a 70-yard drive culminating in Hunt's game-winning touchdown.
This victory extends the Chiefs' winning streak to 14 games, setting a new franchise record. The team now holds an 8-0 record for the season. The Chiefs' next game is scheduled against the Denver Broncos, where they will aim to continue their undefeated run.
The game also garnered attention off the field, with pop star Taylor Swift attending to support Travis Kelce. Swift's presence at Arrowhead Stadium has been a topic of interest, coinciding with the Chiefs' strong performances.
Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42199598/chiefs-hold-ot-win-buccaneers